Hormuz Day 92 · Talks stall, draft deal unsigned

What this means

Markets are pricing in a deal that hasn't actually been signed. Even if it does sign, the past 90 days have already changed what companies are doing. Higher costs are locked into contracts. Decisions are made. Plans are adjusted. None of that reverses just because oil prices drop.

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v300 methodology — Forward-only cascade discipline (D8)

Spot prices retrace on de-escalation signals; absorbed effects — contract resets, hedge structures, capex deferrals — persist on their own resolution windows independent of spot movement.

2008–09 oil-shock historical precedent

Corporate-yield erosion ran 18 months past event resolution. Contract baselines reset at elevated cost floor persisted through the recovery phase.

2022 supply-chain compounded compression

Hedge structures locked at crisis rates took two contract cycles to unwind after spot normalised. Reopened supply routes did not immediately reverse contracted shipping rates.

IRP_7 empirical record — d = +2.015

25-name Hormuz universe, Day 0 to Day 67. 100% mechanism-operation observed. Sensitivity and volatility differential vs unflagged control. PHM corpus, May 2026.